Monte Carlo Simulator: How Efikon Analyzes a Thousand Portfolio Scenarios
At Efikon, we base financial decisions on data and statistics. We developed a proprietary tool that models investment futures using a thousand market simulations and historical data.
Why Standard Calculators Were Not Enough
When managing finances and investments, we encountered a fundamental problem. Commonly available tools only work with an average annual return. This is nice in theory, but market reality is different. Markets fluctuate, crises occur, and inflation changes. To make data-driven decisions, we needed to see the risk in its full scope.
We wanted to know what happens to a portfolio during a market downturn or how exchange rates impact it. Since spreadsheets were insufficient for such complex modeling, we used our experience in automation and development to create our own application.
How the Analysis of a Thousand Scenarios Works
The application is built on the Monte Carlo statistical method. Instead of predicting the future, it utilizes raw computing power and real historical data from the last fifty years.
The system takes your set portfolio and initial capital.
The algorithm performs one thousand unique simulations.
In each simulation, it randomly combines historical market years to create various future scenarios.
The result is not a single number, but a probability fan. We can see the worst-case scenario, the median, and the most optimistic variant. This allows us to plan cash flow and manage risk more effectively.
Technology and Vibe Coding
This project demonstrates that you do not need a team of ten programmers to create an advanced analytical tool today. We developed the application using the Vibe Coding method, utilizing modern AI tools and Python statistical libraries.
It is exactly the type of smart system we strive to implement for our clients. Efficient, fast, and solving a specific business problem.
Try the Simulation
We decided to make the application publicly available. You can test how your investment strategy would stand up in a thousand different parallel worlds.